ASML has boosted its 2026 revenue forecast to €43 €45 billion, marking an impressive 35% growth over 2025’s €32.7 billion. This sharp upward revision highlights both the surging demand for advanced chipmaking equipment and ASML’s dominant position in the semiconductor supply chain.
The company’s Q2 results, announced July 15, showcased net sales of €9.326 billion, surpassing guidance by a wide margin and representing a 21.2% year-on-year increase. Earnings per ADR came in at $8.68, beating analyst expectations by nearly 10%. This outperformance has driven ASML’s stock up about 69% year-to-date, pushing its market cap close to $700 billion, setting the stage for a potential first European trillion-dollar company.
ASML’s monopoly on EUV lithography systems, key for manufacturing the latest chips, means capacity constraints have become the main bottleneck. The firm plans a 30% increase in Low-NA EUV tools for 2027, expanding from roughly 65 to 78 80 units. Demand is so strong that even this expansion is nearly fully booked, prompting discussions of another similar capacity increase for 2028.
Memory chip production is fueling growth, with system revenue in this segment expected to rise over 75% this year. Intel’s deployment of ASML’s new High-NA EUV tools signals the company’s centrality in next-generation semiconductor manufacturing technologies. The coming quarter’s guidance of €11 €12 billion revenue and gross margins of 55 57% forecasts over 20% sequential growth, cementing this trajectory.
Wall Street consensus is unanimously positive, with all eight analyst ratings as Buy and an average 12-month target of $2,421, suggesting a 38.5% upside from current prices. This puts the trillion-dollar market cap milestone within reach, a feat not yet achieved by any European firm. However, geopolitical risks linger, particularly the proposed U.S. MATCH Act, which could limit ASML’s sales and servicing in China a market expected to constitute 20% of revenue in 2026.
This material is informational and not financial advice.
