Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan sees three rate hikes coming. JPMorgan doesn't. Goldman Sachs thinks nothing happens until year-end. The Fed's September move is the most fought-over question on Wall Street right now, and the data shows almost nobody agrees.
Forecasting markets are split almost down the middle. Investors price in a 49 percent chance the Fed holds rates steady in September, with 47 percent betting on a quarter-point hike. Everything else rounds to noise. Bank of America's call is the most hawkish in the room. Moynihan points to solid labor numbers and stubborn inflation to justify three separate increases spaced across September, October, and December.
JPMorgan takes the opposite view, expecting flat rates this month and a single hike only in December. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Barclays all cluster around "nothing until 2027," while Citi floats the most dovish scenario, holding in September but cutting in October, December, and January.
Moynihan added one more observation worth watching. Spending patterns among rich and poor consumers are converging, he said. That matters because divergence usually signals trouble ahead. A wealthy consumer pulling back while a struggling household tightens further spells weakness. If those patterns are actually syncing up, it suggests the economy still has some legs beneath it.
Futures traders already betting the divergence stays messy through year-end.
This is informational material only, not investment advice.
