SpaceX stock dropped 9.92% in after-hours trading, sliding from $125.33 to $112.90. The move came straight after the company's first quarterly earnings report as a public entity, which by any normal measure looked stellar.

Revenue landed at $7.81 billion against $6.93 billion expected. The Space segment pulled in $962 million versus $835 million forecasted. Connectivity hit $4.29 billion compared to $3.83 billion. Even the AI division came in at $2.56 billion, beating the $2.18 billion estimate. Loss per share clocked in at just $0.09, well below the feared $0.26.

So why the nosedive? One number explains most of it. Analysts penciled in $13.22 billion in capital expenditures. SpaceX actually spent $18 billion. The gap went almost entirely to AI infrastructure, and that spooked investors.

The AI spending problem

Wall Street has grown impatient with big tech's massive AI infrastructure bets. Nvidia, Meta, Amazon, Google all burning billions on data centers and chips with minimal proof that the returns will materialize. SpaceX blowing past its CapEx guidance by $5 billion hit a raw nerve at exactly the wrong moment.

That $2.56 billion AI revenue figure came with strings attached. The company signed compute rental deals with Anthropic and Google that could eventually push quarterly AI revenue to $6.5 billion. But those deals themselves undercut the narrative. They signal that SpaceX has spare capacity after xAI's needs are met, which means the infrastructure buildout likely exceeds actual current demand. Observers noted that OpenAI and Anthropic remain the only meaningful AI compute customers in the market, making any deal with either one feel like a crowded trade rather than broad adoption.

The timing made things worse. Investors are already jittery about whether the trillion-dollar AI infrastructure wave will generate actual profits or just consume capital forever. SpaceX's earnings beat couldn't overcome that broader anxiety. The stock entered a downtrend after the report and appears likely to extend losses rather than bounce.

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