Prediction markets are pricing in slim odds for the CLARITY Act this year. Polymarket traders have dropped the chance of H.R. 3633 becoming law in 2026 to just 16%, down from peaks above 75% earlier in the spring. Senate Majority Leader John Thune didn't file cloture on the measure Tuesday, and lawmakers now face August 7 as the final working day before a month-long recess.
The bill needs serious work still. Cloture petitions require a one-day waiting period under Senate rules. Even if senators invoke cloture, debate alone can stretch 30 hours and consume several days without unanimous agreements to speed things up. Thune signaled he wants to at least start the process, but a delayed launch pushes real action toward September, when election season and competing priorities will crowd the calendar.
The House already cleared H.R. 3633 with a 294-134 vote back in July 2025. The Senate Banking Committee advanced its version 15-9 in May this year. The proposal carves out clearer federal rules for digital assets and splits authority between the SEC and CFTC. It also creates federal pathways for platforms and token issuers navigating overlapping agency rules and fragmented state licensing systems. Coverage includes trading, customer protections, disclosures, and anti-money-laundering guardrails.
Polymarket's contract recorded about $4.71 million in volume as traders reassessed the available Senate calendar. Prices can swing sharply when negotiations, schedules, and public comments shift the calculus. Right now, the math doesn't favor action before the break.
This material is for information only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Market predictions and odds reflect trading activity, not certainty.
