TradingShot just mapped out a grim scenario for XRP holders. The technical analyst spotted something that hasn't happened since June 2024: two straight monthly closes below XRP's 50-period moving average. July's close sealed the pattern, and historically, this setup has preceded major selloffs.

The analyst dug into past cycles and found parallels to the 2021-2022 downturn. Back then, XRP crashed hard before bottoming near its monthly 100-period moving average. The current chart structure suggests something similar is brewing. TradingShot identified a potential floor zone between $0.80 and $0.65, which would mean a 25% to 40% drop from where XRP trades now at $1.07.

The Fibonacci math checks out

That $0.65 target sits just below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level where XRP actually bottomed in June 2022. The range also overlaps with a six-year accumulation zone that historically attracted big buyers. The upper boundary aligns with a possible test of the monthly 100-period moving average, while the lower end hits the 150-period moving average.

The RSI tells another story. XRP's monthly RSI is approaching a descending trendline that marked previous cycle bottoms in 2020 and 2022. When that indicator hits those lows, it has historically triggered the strongest long-term buy signals. TradingShot expects a new signal within three to four months, though more pain likely comes first. Previous RSI lows also coincided with XRP consolidating inside its long-term accumulation zone before major rallies took off.

What comes after the crash

The bear phase won't last forever. Once the correction plays out, TradingShot sees a new bull cycle emerging. The key resistance to watch is a long-term higher-highs trendline. Break above that, and XRP could potentially target $6.

At press time, XRP was trading at $1.07, up a modest 0.5% over 24 hours.

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Crypto markets are highly volatile and unpredictable. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.