During the 2026 US-Iran war, which spanned from February 28 to June 17, US stocks emerged as the most resilient assets, defying expectations while traditional safe havens like gold and Bitcoin faltered.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both hit record highs despite early turbulence, climbing approximately 9% and 14% above their pre-war levels, respectively. In stark contrast, gold, which had surged close to $5,281 just before the conflict, saw a dramatic decline; it dropped about 16% during the second quarter, marking its worst quarterly performance since Q2 2013, ultimately finishing at around $3,942 by June 30.

The Safe-Haven Trade That Went Wrong

Gold's poor performance was particularly striking given its recent rally of nearly 60% in the months leading to the war, as traders had already factored in substantial geopolitical risk. However, following the initial strike on Iran that claimed the life of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the metal saw an immediate spike followed by a sharp reversal, leading to four consecutive months of declines.

Silver fared even worse, plummeting by 37% throughout the conflict. Meanwhile, Bitcoin, which many had anticipated to act as a store of value, behaved like a typical risk asset, peaking at $82,791 on May 10 before falling to around $62,000 by mid-July, reflecting the broader market sentiment rather than safe-haven demand.

The conflict's end brought some stabilization, but the geopolitical landscape remained fraught. The ambiguity surrounding control of the Strait of Hormuz continued to generate uncertainty, reigniting tensions as reports of Iranian strikes emerged in July. This situation contributed to Bitcoin's further dip, although it bounced back slightly as US inflation cooled.

In this volatile environment, the resilience of US equities stands out, suggesting a potential shift in how investors view risk during military conflicts. With the transition from traditional safe havens to equities, it could redefine strategies for capital preservation in future geopolitical crises.

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.