Recent adjustments from William Blair regarding Coinbase’s revenue and EBITDA forecasts have sparked discussions about the current state of the cryptocurrency market. The firm announced a 12% reduction in revenue expectations for 2026 and a 13% cut for 2027 while slashing EBITDA projections by a staggering 34% for both years. These revisions indicate a profound reassessment of trading volumes, suggesting that the anticipated recovery may be more gradual than previously thought.
Initially, William Blair had initiated coverage on Coinbase with an Outperform rating back in June 2025, projecting a solid recovery in trading volumes. However, the latest figures reveal that the firm’s earlier assumptions about market conditions were overly optimistic. The current EBITDA for Coinbase is approximately $1.00 billion, with expectations that it will hit a low point in the latter half of 2026 before potentially rebounding the following year.
Despite these cuts, William Blair maintained its Outperform rating on the stock, currently trading at $161.50, which reflects a significant 58% decline over the past year. The rationale behind this bullish outlook rests on the belief that casual traders will return as Bitcoin begins to recover from its recent lows. The firm emphasizes that trading volumes are currently conservative, setting the stage for a potential surge in retail trading activity should Bitcoin regain its upward momentum.
Market Sentiment and Future Implications
In the broader market, sentiment towards Coinbase is mixed. BTIG recently reduced its price target to $260, while US Tiger Securities opted for a more optimistic approach, upgrading Coinbase to a Buy rating with a target of $200. Baird's stance remains neutral, placing a target of $142, indicating skepticism about a rapid recovery.
For investors, the implications are clear. The significant EBITDA cut reflects a trading environment where retail participation has waned, raising concerns about the sustainability of Coinbase's business model in the current market. As William Blair suggests, the key variable to watch moving forward is Bitcoin's price action in the latter half of 2026. A rebound in Bitcoin prices could potentially revive interest from retail traders, which is crucial for Coinbase's profitability given its relatively fixed cost structure.
Importantly, William Blair also highlights Circle, a stablecoin issuer, as a complementary asset to Coinbase, suggesting that both firms are well-positioned to capitalize on a resurgence in the crypto market. This pairing reflects a strategic outlook on stablecoins as integral to the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem.
This material is informational and should not be considered financial advice.
