From an all-time high of $225.64 to $115.26 at the latest close, SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) has shed more than half its peak value in a matter of weeks, dragging the company's market cap roughly $250 billion below where it stood on IPO day. The stock is now trading well under the $135 IPO price, and the next psychological floor, $100, is starting to look less like a floor and more like a target.

A $1.77 Trillion Valuation With Less Than $5 Billion in Revenue

The core problem was flagged by analysts before SPCX even began trading. Morningstar put fair value at around $70 per share, and the company's first-quarter 2026 numbers did little to argue otherwise. SpaceX pulled in under $5 billion in Q1 revenue and posted an operating loss of nearly $2 billion. Compare that to Broadcom, which reported over $19 billion in quarterly revenue, or Saudi Aramco, which netted more than $33 billion in net income over the same three months. Both companies carried roughly similar market caps to SpaceX at IPO. That gap is hard to talk away.

The $1.77 trillion IPO valuation was always a bet on trajectory, not on current fundamentals. The market is now repricing that bet.

Why the Nasdaq-100 Addition Did Not Save the Stock

On July 7, SPCX was added to the Nasdaq-100. That event was widely expected to trigger a wave of automatic buying from index funds that track the benchmark. It did not move the needle in any meaningful way. That is a telling signal. When forced buying from passive vehicles fails to generate upward pressure, it suggests the organic selling on the other side is heavier than anticipated.

The float is still unusually thin for a company of this size, and all insiders remain locked out of selling. That combination normally supports a price, yet it has not helped here. Palantir offers a useful reference point: after joining the S&P 500, it rallied about 30% in its first month and roughly 400% over its first year. SPCX got the Nasdaq-100 bump and barely held its level.

August Earnings and the Google Deal Are the Last Near-Term Catalysts

The August 4 earnings report is now the clearest potential inflection point. SpaceX has signed compute agreements with Google and Anthropic, and a $1.25 billion monthly deal with one of the world's most prominent AI companies adds real weight to the revenue story. A strong beat relative to analyst forecasts could shift sentiment quickly, given how much of the current slide is driven by valuation anxiety rather than operational collapse.

There is a catch, though. The Google partnership came with a disclosed discount applied to the initial quarter, which will cap the revenue contribution from that deal in the upcoming filing. Investors will need to read the earnings carefully rather than react to the headline number alone.

Longer term, the tension between an ambitious valuation and actual financial results is not going away after one good quarter. Morningstar's $70 fair value estimate was published before trading began and, so far, the market's direction has been closer to that figure than to the $225 peak.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.