Wells Fargo analyst Aaron Rakers raised his conviction on AMD after the chipmaker signed a deal with AI company Anthropic, reiterating an Overweight rating and a 12-month price target of $615 per share. That figure sits well above the Street consensus, and Rakers says the agreement, though widely anticipated, only reinforced his view.

The core of his thesis: AMD's GPU revenue could reach $40.6 billion by 2027. He went further, flagging that the MI455X chips and Helios rack-scale systems, which carry multi-billion-dollar price tags, could push that number toward $50 billion if adoption accelerates as he expects.

Pull back to the broader picture, though, and the numbers get more complicated. As of July 23, AMD carries a "Strong Buy" consensus across 28 positive ratings and 8 Hold calls, with zero sells, according to TipRanks data compiled by Finbold. But the average 12-month price target across all analysts sits at $541.31, actually a 1.99% decline from AMD's most recent close of $552.33. Bulls on paper, cautious on price.

Part of that gap likely comes from timing. Aggregators include all institutional forecasts from the past three months, meaning older, lower targets drag the average down even when recent sentiment has shifted. Still, it's not purely a math quirk. Jefferies analyst Blayne Curtis issued a Buy rating as recently as July 16 yet set his target at $515, implying a 6.76% pullback from current levels. Some bulls simply don't think the rally has legs much further from here.

AMD's chart is stuck in a holding pattern

The stock itself has been in an odd place. AMD is up 147.16% year-to-date through late July, one of the stronger runs in the semiconductor space. But since early June, the shares have barely moved despite sharp swings in both directions. That kind of tight, choppy trading after a big run often signals an accumulation phase, where larger players quietly build positions before the next leg.

The Anthropic deal could be the catalyst that breaks the range. Or it could go the other way. Investor skepticism toward AI spending is growing, and a high-profile partnership announcement has triggered sell-the-news reactions before. AMD shareholders are essentially waiting to see which side blinks first.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.