Nearly 9% of the world's refining capacity has been disrupted due to conflicts in Russia and the Middle East, sending fuel prices upward. ExxonMobil and Chevron warn that this shortage will keep gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel prices elevated for the foreseeable future.
Russia's ban on diesel exports and ongoing refinery outages have tightened supply even as crude oil prices retreat to levels seen before the war. Market analysts now put the chance of crude oil hitting a new all-time high at 14.5% by the end of the year, highlighting concerns over the limited refining output.
Industry leaders including OPEC’s Secretary General and the IEA Executive Director are closely monitoring these tensions, which could further unsettle fuel markets. Geopolitical shifts and export bans remain critical factors shaping crude oil forecasts in the months ahead.
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