Elon Musk dropped a bold image on X, calling AI’s sudden acceleration a "supersonic tsunami." Along with the statement, he shared a chart tracking AI progress from mid-2023 to mid-2026. The graph highlights November 2024 as a moment when excitement dipped, labeling it "it’s so over," only to then show a sharp upward surge starting in early 2026.
That dip came when OpenAI’s upcoming model, Orion, was revealed to offer only minor improvements over GPT-4, sparking fears the AI breakthrough might be stalling. Sam Altman quickly pushed back on that narrative, insisting no growth wall exists. Musk’s chart seems to confirm the rebound, with AI advancements picking up pace again as 2026 unfolds.
The numbers reflect this trend. Musk’s own xAI recently released Grok 4.5, which topped benchmarks in speed and cost-efficiency compared to competitors according to Artificial Analysis. Musk also revealed plans to train Grok with SpaceX engineering data, aiming to boost the AI’s practical problem-solving skills beyond just text. This access excludes sensitive materials, aligning with U.S. export controls.
Musk’s tone has shifted too. After months of criticism, he publicly recognized Anthropic as "the current industry leader," underscoring how fierce competition between AI labs might be fueling his tsunami metaphor as much as pure data.
Back in January at Davos, Musk predicted artificial general intelligence (AGI) machines matching human reasoning across tasks could arrive before 2026 ends. Elsewhere, he forecasted AI surpassing collective human intelligence within five years. He warns this comes with huge economic promise but also risks of losing control over AI’s power. Not everyone agrees on the timeline. Geoffrey Hinton, known as the Godfather of AI, believes AGI may still be 20 years away.
