Analyst Benjamin Cowen just outlined a narrowing technical trap for Bitcoin. The price is getting pinched between two levels, and something has to give before year-end.
The bear market resistance sits around $69,000, sliding lower over time. Below it, the 200-week moving average keeps climbing toward $63,700. As these bands compress, Cowen argues the market will run out of room. Bitcoin either breaks above the upper band or drops below the average. No third option.
This pinch matters because it forces clarity. Once the squeeze resolves, volatility should spike hard. Right now, indecision is keeping things tight. That ends the moment price takes one side or the other.
Historical August weakness could reshape the move
Cowen dug into seasonal patterns. July in midterm years tends to rise. Bitcoin gained 7% last month, which fits. But August tells a different story. Back in 2014, August dropped 18%. In 2018, losses hit 15%. In 2022, another 15% down. Mid-August could open what Cowen calls a "window of weakness," pushing price 10% lower and back below $60,000.
The MVRV Score, an on-chain metric tracking realized versus market value, hasn't hit its historical bottom yet. A proper price floor, Cowen notes, would need to match historical cycles before that indicator turns negative. That means more pain may be built into the setup.
For now, dollar-cost averaging remains the play. Long-term investors who stick to the rhythm through the second half of the year should weather whatever comes next.
This material is informational only and not financial advice. Cryptocurrency markets carry substantial risk.
