XRP Slips Below $1.06: Analyst Warns of Potential 30% Decline Ahead
Analyst Ali Martinez warns that XRP's breakdown below the critical $1.06 support level has opened the door to a potential 22–32% decline, with key bearish targets identified at $0.80 and $0.70.
Prominent crypto analyst Ali Martinez has released a comprehensive technical and on-chain analysis of XRP, painting a cautionary picture for the asset's near-term trajectory. According to his findings, XRP has surrendered a critical support zone, and the bearish targets he has identified now sit between 22% and 32% below the token's current market price.
The central concern in Martinez's analysis revolves around the $1.06 price level — a threshold where on-chain data indicates that over 830 million XRP tokens previously exchanged hands. This concentration of activity made $1.06 the most significant defensive line for bulls. However, by the close of June 30, the price breached this high-volume zone and declined to approximately $1.03.
Once broken, this formerly supportive level flipped into a formidable overhead resistance. The large number of positions now underwater creates persistent selling pressure, as holders who bought near $1.06 are effectively trapped at a loss. This dynamic also invalidates daily bullish signals that had been forming on the chart.
Despite the bearish outlook, Martinez's roadmap acknowledges a tug-of-war playing out among different classes of XRP participants. On one side, whale wallets are actively offloading holdings as broader crypto market liquidity contracts. On the other side, retail participants appear to be stepping in to absorb the pressure — daily active addresses on the XRP network surged by nearly 50%, reaching approximately 40,000.
Adding a sliver of optimism, the TD Sequential indicator has flashed a short-term rebound signal on the daily chart. Martinez, however, stresses that this should not be mistaken for a trend reversal. Without a confirmed daily close back above $1.06, any upward move would likely represent nothing more than a brief relief rally before the downtrend resumes.
Looking at the weekly timeframe, XRP is running into resistance at the upper boundary of a long-standing ascending channel. If the asset fails to reclaim $1.06, Martinez outlines two primary downside targets:
— $0.80: An intermediate support zone located near the midpoint of the trading channel, where a notable volume cluster is positioned.
— $0.70: The primary bearish objective, aligning with the lower boundary of the broader trend channel and a historically significant accumulation area.
The analyst's earlier scenario had offered a more hopeful alternative — a hold above $1.06 could have validated the daily buy signal and opened the door to a recovery toward $1.27 and $1.35. With that support now broken, however, those upside targets appear increasingly distant.
The upcoming weekly candle close will serve as a crucial checkpoint for market participants. Should retail panic intensify and coincide with continued whale distribution below the $1.06 mark, the probability of a 30% drawdown in XRP grows substantially. Traders and investors are advised to monitor volume dynamics and on-chain data closely before committing to any directional position.
