XRP is clinging to $1.13 after a measured slide that began July 21, and the chart still looks constructive on the surface. Volume dried up during the pullback, which is usually a good sign: sellers are not pressing, and the cup-and-handle pattern that has been forming since early July remains intact. The handle portion fits cleanly into the consolidation, and a low-volume drift lower is precisely the kind of behavior technicians want to see before a breakout attempt.
But the chart is only one side of the story. The money flows tell something different, and you have to look past the headline numbers to catch it.
ETF inflows are still positive, just barely
Every month since XRP spot ETFs launched, net inflows have printed green. April brought in $81.59 million. May peaked at $131.94 million. Then June came in at $59.46 million, more than half of May wiped away. July, with most of the month already behind us, has added only $12.43 million, the weakest reading on record. The sign on the number is still positive, but the trajectory is a steady one-way slide that suggests institutional buyers are quietly reducing their pace, not abandoning ship, but clearly not rushing in either.
On-chain data from Glassnode adds another layer to this. The Hodler Net Position Change metric, which tracks whether long-term holders are accumulating or trimming, spiked to one of its highest readings on June 22. It then fell steadily into July 1, and XRP dropped in lockstep from $1.13 down to $1.05. When holders started adding again, price recovered. The two have tracked each other closely enough that the relationship is hard to dismiss as coincidence. Since July 19, that metric has turned lower again, easing from roughly 231 million to around 226 million XRP.
So the setup is genuinely split. The price chart is constructive, volume behavior supports the bull case, and the cup-and-handle structure has not broken down. At the same time, ETF inflows are decelerating fast and long-term holder behavior is echoing the same pattern that preceded the last correction. The first technical level worth watching on the upside is $1.15, the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement from the July 1 to July 13 move, a zone that has historically acted as a common pullback magnet within trending moves. That level is where the argument between the chart and the flow data gets settled.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Crypto assets carry significant risk; always do your own research before making any investment decisions.
