XRP Price Forecast for July 2026: Where Is the Token Headed?
XRP dropped to $1.009 on June 26 — its lowest point since November 2024 — and technical indicators suggest further downside toward $0.85 is possible in July 2026.
On June 26, XRP touched $1.009 — its closest approach to the psychologically significant $1.00 mark since November 2024. The dip came amid broader market weakness, although spot ETF inflows for XRP remained in positive territory throughout the period.
According to earlier reporting by AMBCrypto, ongoing spot ETF demand has been gradually tightening the available XRP supply on the market. However, analysts cautioned that this supply squeeze may not be enough to generate immediate price gains given the current stressed conditions. With broader demand for XRP showing signs of fatigue and speculative interest declining over recent months, the short-term outlook has turned increasingly bearish.
**Can Bulls Hold the $1 Line?**
A look at the 1-day XRP chart reveals an altcoin trapped in a long-term downtrend that has persisted since July 2025. Earlier this year in February, the swing low of $1.61 established back in April 2025 was broken to the downside, officially confirming the bearish market structure. A multi-month range formation provided some stability for a period, but a sharp sell-off in late May overwhelmed buyers. As of the time of writing, XRP was consolidating near the $1.05 local support level after a brief recovery attempt toward $1.30.
**Derivatives Market Signals Caution**
Data from CryptoQuant shows that Open Interest has leveled off around 400 million XRP over recent months, while the Open Interest Turnover Ratio has remained relatively stable near 0.71. These steady readings suggest that speculative activity has cooled significantly — traders in the derivatives market appear reluctant to make strong directional bets at current prices.
Analyst Arab Chain noted that a sudden spike in either Open Interest or the Turnover Ratio could serve as an early warning of incoming volatility. For now, the calm in the derivatives space reflects a market in wait-and-see mode.
**Technical Picture Points South**
On the 4-hour chart, XRP remains confined within a downtrend channel. The mid-June recovery to $1.2935 represented nothing more than a pullback to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at approximately $1.2985 — a level that acted as resistance and was quickly sold into. With that bounce now fully reversed, XRP looks positioned to extend losses toward the next downside targets at $0.975 and $0.854.
Given the current trajectory, a break below the $1.00 psychological level during July 2026 appears to be the more probable scenario.
**Bottom Line**
While speculative excess has faded and the derivatives market appears relatively calm, traders should remain alert to sudden shifts in sentiment. The combination of bearish price structure, fading demand, and clear technical targets to the downside suggests that XRP could decline toward the $0.85 range as July unfolds. Risk management remains critical in these conditions.
