XRP After the $1 Retest: Three Possible Paths Forward

XRP grabbed the attention of traders last Friday when it briefly touched a low of $1.00, forcing both bulls and bears to reassess their positions. The dip came as investors digested the latest personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data for May — the Federal Reserve's go-to inflation metric — released the day prior. The reading showed price pressures rising at their fastest pace since 2023, adding fuel to the Fed's already hawkish rhetoric and weighing heavily on risk assets including crypto.

The pressure on XRP had been building for several days. The token declined for three consecutive sessions as selling momentum picked up throughout the week. A key volume cluster at $1.06 — a price point where more than 830 million XRP previously changed hands — was tested as a support level, but buyers failed to defend it decisively, allowing the slide toward $1.00 to continue.

**Scenario One: The Rebound Holds**

XRP did manage to bounce off the $1.00 mark on Friday, and that recovery carried into Saturday. At the time of writing, the token is trading around $1.07, reflecting a gain of roughly 2.95% over the past 24 hours. If buying interest continues to build, the $1.06 volume block could reassert itself as meaningful support. On-chain data from the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) confirms the significance of this zone — over 830 million XRP exchanged hands there, making it a level worth monitoring closely.

**Scenario Two: Sideways Consolidation**

Alternatively, XRP may enter a period of price consolidation while the market waits for a fresh catalyst. With macro uncertainty lingering and no immediate bullish trigger on the horizon, a holding pattern between key support and resistance zones is a plausible outcome. In this case, traders may look for volume and momentum signals before committing to a directional bias.

**Scenario Three: A Break Below $1.00**

The third — and arguably most concerning — scenario involves XRP failing to sustain current levels and slipping below the $1.00 psychological threshold. Should that occur, on-chain transaction history points to three deeper support zones where significant volume previously accumulated. Analyst Ali Charts has highlighted these levels: $0.80, where approximately 923 million XRP were transacted; $0.62, where 1.16 billion XRP changed hands; and $0.51, where over 1.06 billion XRP were previously traded. These areas could act as landing zones in a more extended downside move.

**RLUSD Milestone and Regulatory Progress**

Beyond price action, XRP's broader ecosystem delivered notable news this week. The XRP Ledger has now surpassed Ethereum in terms of RLUSD on-chain supply. According to Ripple's stablecoin tracker, RLUSD circulating on the XRP Ledger reached $810 million, edging out Ethereum's $760 million — a milestone that signals growing institutional adoption of Ripple's stablecoin infrastructure.

On the regulatory front, Japan's Financial Services Agency formally approved RLUSD as a recognized electronic payment instrument under the country's Payment Services Act. The stablecoin will be made accessible to both institutional and retail clients through SBI VC Trade, marking a significant step in RLUSD's expansion into one of the world's most regulated financial markets.

With macro headwinds from rising inflation data, critical on-chain support levels in play, and positive ecosystem developments, XRP stands at a pivotal crossroads. How the token responds to the $1.06 zone in the coming sessions could define its trajectory for weeks ahead.