Wedbush Sees SpaceX as an AI Infrastructure Giant, Not Just a Space Company

Wedbush Securities has launched coverage of SpaceX (SPCX) with an Outperform rating and a price target of $190, framing the company not as a conventional aerospace business but as a major artificial intelligence infrastructure play. The firm's analysis challenges the traditional narrative around SpaceX, positioning it alongside the world's leading hyperscalers.

Dan Ives, Wedbush's Global Head of Tech Research, laid out the bullish thesis on CNBC's Fast Money. According to Ives, SpaceX's growing AI compute division has the potential to transform the company into one of the most compelling long-term technology investments in the market. "It's much more of an AI play, and that's our whole view from a data perspective," Ives stated during the broadcast.

The $190 price target represents approximately 11% upside from SPCX's Tuesday closing price of $170.86. Wedbush arrived at this figure using a sum-of-the-parts valuation model, with AI compute infrastructure contributing significantly to the long-term outlook. Ives acknowledged that the stock appears stretched relative to current revenue levels, but argued that strong execution over the next two to three years could justify the premium and cement SpaceX's status as a top-tier AI investment.

Starlink Remains the Commercial Backbone

Despite the AI narrative, Starlink continues to serve as the primary revenue engine for SpaceX. The satellite internet division generated approximately $11.4 billion in revenue last year, accounting for roughly 61% of the company's total sales. Starlink also delivered a meaningful operating profit, even as SpaceX reported a net loss on a consolidated basis.

Wedbush's $190 target relies heavily on Starlink's recurring subscriber revenue and expanding profit margins. The launch segment and the emerging AI unit are viewed as supplementary layers rather than the core of the valuation argument.

The Launch Business: Strategic Moat, Not a Profit Driver

Falcon 9 continues to dominate the global commercial launch market, and Starship is expected to reduce per-launch costs by enabling larger satellite payloads per flight. However, the launch segment generates far less revenue than Starlink, and the majority of launches are internal missions deploying SpaceX's own satellite constellation rather than serving outside clients.

This dynamic explains why investors are focused so intently on Starlink's subscriber growth trajectory and margin expansion. If Starlink continues scaling at its current pace, it can independently support a significant portion of SpaceX's total valuation, with AI infrastructure contributing additional upside potential.

Broader Market Context

SpaceX is also moving closer to inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 index, which could attract additional institutional interest. Shares recently tested a critical support level following the company's record-setting IPO. A subsequent bond offering did draw some concerns about valuation, with analysts flagging potential bubble risks.

Nevertheless, Wedbush remains firmly bullish, betting that SpaceX's combination of satellite dominance, cost-efficient launch technology, and emerging AI compute capabilities will make it one of the defining technology investments of the decade.