Michael Terpin, the veteran crypto investor who wrote Bitcoin Supercycle, thinks the current selloff has further to run. He expects one more capitulation wave that could push BTC down to $40,000 to $50,000 before the market finds its footing and launches into the next bull phase. The timing matters as much as the price.
Terpin's call rests on the four-year halving cycle, a pattern that has governed Bitcoin's boom-bust rhythm for over a decade. Bear markets that follow major peaks typically last nine to eleven months. The math points to early October as the likely bottom, about twelve months after the previous peak in November 2021. That's when the capitulation usually hits hardest, when hope finally drains from the market.
The 2021-2022 cycle offers a template. Bitcoin peaked on November 10, 2021, then bottomed almost exactly one year later when FTX collapsed. Terpin dismisses the idea that a six-week dip counts as a proper correction. The temporal structure of these cycles demands patience, and the market hasn't yet paid its full price.
What happens next matters for institutions watching from the sidelines. Once the capitulation phase exhausts itself, the law of diminishing returns kicks in. Fewer coins get mined with each halving, supply tightens, and the strategic patience of large players finally converts into buying. Terpin's longer-term thesis points to a new peak somewhere between $180,000 and $300,000 by 2029, assuming the halving cycle continues to govern price discovery.
This material is informational only and should not be construed as financial advice. Cryptocurrency markets remain highly volatile and speculative.
