SUI crypto has lost 8.76% this past week, sliding 1.43% in the last 24 hours, while Bitcoin edged up 0.5% over the same period.
Data from Coinalyze reveals that the spot cumulative volume delta (CVD) for SUI has declined over two days. Open Interest dropped as prices fell from $0.72, though the funding rate remains positive.
This suggests short-term bearish sentiment, but aggressive short selling has not kicked in yet. Should funding rates turn negative and Open Interest rise, a short squeeze and price rebound could occur.
Adding pressure, a substantial token unlock is set for August 1, releasing 13.72 million SUI tokens worth nearly $9.8 million. In the last month alone, 22.76 million tokens became available through four unlock events.
These unlocks increase supply and may trigger short-term selling as early contributors gain access to their tokens. Currently, only 40.6% of the vesting schedule has been completed, meaning further unlocks loom ahead.
Price action on the daily chart reflects a clear bearish trend, with a sharp drop from $1.42 to $0.65 between May and early June. There is potential for a bounce toward the Fibonacci retracement zone between $1.12 and $1.25, representing the 61.8% to 78.6% levels.
Over the last two months, SUI has traded sideways, forming a range between $0.70 and $0.77. At the time of writing, the price sits near the range's bottom.
Recent trading saw a liquidity sweep down to $0.69, and another dip could happen if bullish momentum fails to appear soon. Swing traders might consider buying with a target near $0.775, while a four-hour close below $0.692 would invalidate this range setup.
The ongoing token unlocks combined with the persistent downtrend are challenging investor confidence. For a sustained bullish reversal, SUI needs to break above $1.42 convincingly.
