"This marks a milestone for the business," said CEO Brian Niccol as Starbucks prepares to reveal its Q3 fiscal 2026 results Wednesday after market close. The coffee giant’s shares have climbed 23% this year to around $104, outpacing the S&P 500’s 8% rise. Investors are eager to see if the momentum from three consecutive quarters of positive comparable sales can hold up, especially with Wall Street forecasting earnings per share of $0.65 on $9.12 billion in revenue, signaling a 3.6% decline from the previous year.
Last quarter’s strong 8.8% revenue increase to $9.53 billion and an earnings beat fueled optimism, but expectations have tempered since. Analysts now brace for a 3% drop in revenue year-over-year, reversing last year’s 3.8% growth in Q2. Starbucks has a mixed track record over the past two years, beating EPS estimates only 13% of the time and revenue estimates half the time, which tempers enthusiasm.
RBC analyst Logan Reich highlighted factors driving momentum such as strategic labor investments, targeted store closures, and extended hours, projecting results largely in line with consensus. However, margin pressures loom large. Rising coffee costs, tariffs, and increased reliance on delivery platforms are weighing on profitability. Analyst Gary Alexander emphasized the challenge ahead: sustaining mid-to-high single-digit comparable sales growth across multiple quarters remains uncertain.
EPS estimate revisions mostly show upward moves in recent months, but revenue forecasts are more mixed with more downward revisions. As Starbucks navigates these headwinds, investors will be watching closely for updates on its ambitious $2 billion cost-cutting goal over three years. The company’s performance will also provide insight on broader retail resilience amid economic challenges.
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