SpaceX’s stock has taken a sharp dive since its June debut, falling about 20% below its $135 IPO price. The company lost roughly $1.2 trillion in market value from its peak in mid-June, marking one of the fastest and largest declines seen from a newly public company.
Just weeks after soaring 50% above the IPO price, SpaceX shares now trade near $108. This drop comes despite successful Starship test flights, highlighting that the stock’s troubles stem more from market mechanics than the company’s technology.
The main issue is the looming lockup expiration. Currently, only 639 million SpaceX shares are freely tradable. On August 6, an additional 911.5 million shares become available, and by December, the tradable float will explode to 5.33 billion shares. This flood of supply deters institutional investors and fuels heavy short selling, with about 30% of the float sold short.
Meanwhile, smaller 2026 IPOs have been thriving. Veradermics, for example, surged over 500%, showing the broader market is not to blame. It’s SpaceX’s oversized share float and lockup schedule that weigh on its stock.
Analysts like Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas argue that the current share price implies little to no value for SpaceX’s AI segment, deepening investor skepticism despite the company’s operational successes.
The unfolding lockup wall could keep pressure on SpaceX shares for months. Investors who jumped in during the June rally are now forced to reckon with the reality of a massive supply increase hitting the market soon.
This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
