SpaceX stock has fallen almost 50% from its post-IPO peak above $225, currently trading near $115, sparking concerns about a further downturn. ChatGPT projects the shares might decline to $50 between August 2026 and the first half of 2027, but only if several bearish triggers come into play.
The critical period falls between August and October 2026, right after SpaceX reports second-quarter earnings and more than 911 million previously locked-up shares become eligible to trade. Heavy insider selling combined with disappointing financial results could push the stock down as the market adjusts to an expanded share float. Additional lockup expirations set for 2027 might cause another wave of volatility.
SpaceX's Growth and Risk Factors
Despite these headwinds, ChatGPT sees a collapse to $50 as unlikely. The company’s core business remains strong: Starlink generates an estimated $3.26 billion in quarterly revenue and $1.19 billion in operating income, while SpaceX continues to lead in commercial launches and expands government contracts. Revenue for 2025 is forecasted around $18.7 billion, a 33% increase from the previous year.
According to ChatGPT’s analysis, SpaceX has a 45% chance to trade between $90 and $130 in the near term. There’s a 30% probability of the price dropping to $70-$90 and a 15% risk of slipping into the $50-$70 range. The odds of falling below $50 hover at around 10%.
The recent price slide primarily reflects concerns about valuation and share supply, not a weakening business. The excitement from SpaceX's IPO and climb past $225 subsided as investors turned attention to looming lockup expirations and the delays in the Starship program, which remains central to the company’s long-term plans.
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
