A single options trade is betting that SpaceX stock will nearly triple in value before Friday's close. More than 450,000 call contracts sit parked at a $330 strike price, ahead of the company's first earnings report since going public in June.

The math doesn't add up for retail investors. SpaceX was trading near $124 on Tuesday afternoon, up 8% for the day but still below its June IPO pricing of $135. The $330 target sits almost three times higher than the current price. The stock has never even approached that level. Its all-time high is $225.64, and Wall Street's median analyst target is $225, both falling about 46% short of the $330 strike.

Options analysts are convinced this isn't the work of small traders. Brent Kochuba, who runs SpotGamma, an options-flow tracking platform, studied the buying pattern and ruled out the usual suspects. Hedge funds don't move like this. Market makers don't either. His conclusion? Banks are almost certainly on the other side. "My guess is that banks own these calls as a hedge, maybe against some kind of structured product or some other short exposure they have," he told CNBC.

The accumulated cost to build this position reached roughly $20 million. Monday alone saw about 90,000 contracts change hands for $2.2 million, with prices getting cheaper as the stock fell below IPO levels. The August 7 expiration line now holds at least seven times the open interest of any other contract on SpaceX. Those 450,000 calls control roughly 45 million shares worth about $14.8 billion if the stock ever hit $330, representing roughly 7% of SpaceX's entire public float of 639 million shares.

SpaceX reports earnings after Tuesday's close, its first results as a public company. Options markets are already pricing in the expected move. Implied volatility sits near 133, suggesting traders expect a swing of about $20.30 or roughly 17% either direction, a range of $102 to $143. The $330 strike sits 131% above even the upper boundary. Earnings-specific moves typically run around 14%. Against a market value near $1.5 trillion, one print could swing roughly $207 billion of shareholder value.

This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.