Galaxy Research slashed the chances of the CLARITY Act becoming law this year to just 30%, down from 50% last month. The shift comes amid persistent uncertainty over bipartisan backing and dwindling time before Congress’s August recess.
The Senate unveiled a new 616-page draft combining earlier cryptocurrency market structure bills into one full package. This version includes updated ethics rules barring senior government officials and their spouses from issuing or sponsoring digital assets while in office. It also adds protections for software developers, safeguards for self-custody users, a registration framework for digital asset custodians, and expanded tools for law enforcement tackling fraud and illicit finance.
Despite months of negotiations, key Democratic senators like Mark Warner, Cory Booker, and Raphael Warnock say the bill still lacks solid ethics and consumer protection measures, leaving critical issues unresolved. Senator Elizabeth Warren voiced strong opposition, warning the act could facilitate criminal financial activity and criticizing the ethics provisions as insufficient.
Political gridlock weighs heavily on the bill, with Republicans holding 53 Senate seats but only about 50 dependable votes according to Galaxy Research. This narrow margin makes passing the legislation increasingly challenging as the legislative calendar shrinks.
The clock is ticking, and without swift consensus, the CLARITY Act’s prospects continue to dim.
This material is informational and not financial advice.
