Senate Majority Leader John Thune has confirmed that the Senate will not vote on the CLARITY Act before its August recess. This announcement has led Polymarket traders to lower the bill’s chances of becoming law in 2026 to just 33%.
Political Roadblocks Stall Crypto Legislation
Originally, supporters of the CLARITY Act had hoped for a vote this summer. However, with lawmakers heading out for the recess, attention now shifts to the period following the November midterm elections. At that time, Congress will face numerous competing priorities including government funding and defense bills, which will limit floor time for crypto regulation.
Ron Hammond, head of policy and advocacy at Wintermute, pointed out that while the bill retains bipartisan backing, election-year politics are overshadowing it. Democrats gearing up for campaigns against President Donald Trump and allegations of corruption are making some senators hesitant to back major crypto legislation before voters head to the polls.
"The votes are there, but election politics are louder," Hammond said, noting a window may open after November when political tensions subside.
Ethics Disputes Add Complexity
Negotiations around the bill have been complicated by disputes tied to Trump’s crypto-related business interests. Senate Democrats have pushed for provisions barring senior government officials from profiting off crypto ventures while in office. The latest draft assigns enforcement of these ethics rules to the Department of Justice. Some Democrats oppose this because the DOJ is part of the executive branch, raising concerns about impartiality with a sitting president.
Currently, seven Senate Democrats oppose the bill over issues involving ethics, consumer protection, and enforcement, according to a recent report. With Republicans holding 53 Senate seats, they need at least seven Democratic votes to reach the 60-vote threshold required to advance the legislation.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has encouraged Democrats to focus their midterm messaging on corruption allegations against Trump, a strategy that may reduce their willingness to support a legislative win for the administration before the elections.
This material is for informational purposes and does not constitute financial advice.
