Polymarket traders have slashed the odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to roughly 34%, down sharply from 53% just weeks ago. The Senate’s decision to prioritize sanctions on Russia and Iran, along with federal nominations, has pushed the bill off the immediate schedule, casting doubt on its timely passage.
Galaxy Digital’s Alex Thorn points to the Senate calendar as the biggest obstacle. He estimates only a 30% chance of the bill passing due to limited floor time and complex vote arithmetic. With Republicans holding 53 seats but possibly only 50 solid supporters, the party would need at least 10 Democratic senators backing the bill, assuming some GOP members remain unavailable or oppose it. Senators Josh Hawley and Rand Paul have yet to commit, while Mitch McConnell’s health issues add uncertainty.
Normally, overcoming the Senate filibuster requires 60 votes, further narrowing the path. The bill cleared the Senate Banking Committee in May with bipartisan support, but committee approval doesn’t guarantee a floor vote or enough backing. The Senate Majority Leader John Thune has not scheduled immediate action, and with the August recess looming, the window is rapidly closing.
While a vote could still happen during the first week of August, a delay beyond that would push action near the midterm elections. Campaigning during that period often delays contentious bills needing broad support. This timing crunch puts the CLARITY Act’s future in jeopardy even as the crypto industry watches closely.
Bitcoin held near $63,800 amid the bill’s uncertainty and other market pressures adding to volatility.
Material is for informational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice.
