Traders betting on the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 have slashed its odds to a record-low 27%. This plunge happened right after Senate leaders decided to postpone any action on the crypto market structure bill. Instead, they shifted focus to pressing issues like sanctions on Russia and confirming federal nominees, leaving very little time for the crypto legislation before the August 8 recess.
The Senate vote on July 28 moved the sanctions package forward but squeezed the legislative calendar for the crypto bill. Industry voices had urged Senate Majority Leader John Thune to at least start the cloture process before the break. That procedural vote could reveal whether the bill has enough bipartisan support to proceed later this year, even if a full vote isn’t possible now.
Meanwhile, Senators Ruben Gallego, a Democrat, and Republican Thom Tillis are hashing out a bipartisan counteroffer on the bill’s ethics provisions. Their proposal might shift enforcement authority on ethics rules from the Department of Justice to state attorneys general, adding a new layer to the debate. Stablecoin yield restrictions, pushed by banking groups worried about competition with traditional deposits, could also slow progress further.
Polymarket’s price drop reflects growing skepticism among traders about the CLARITY Act’s legislative window. Galaxy Digital has also trimmed its passage probability to about 30%, signaling that negotiations will drag into the Senate’s busy schedule. SEC Chair Paul Atkins has warned the agency might bypass Congress altogether to set crypto rules if lawmakers can’t reach an agreement. The outcome of this standstill will shape crypto regulation’s path for years to come.
