"Traders are pricing in regulatory progress that is still far from certain, while ignoring a macro backdrop that could tighten fast." That was the warning from Levi Rietveld, a crypto-market commentator with a sizeable YouTube following, who argued this week that rising rate-hike bets on prediction markets pose a more immediate threat to XRP than any near-term optimism around the CLARITY Act. According to Rietveld, the probability of a Federal Reserve interest-rate increase in 2025 has climbed to 62% on those platforms, up from around 50% just a few weeks ago. No rate hike has been announced; these are betting-market figures, not Fed guidance.
On the legislative side, Rietveld acknowledged that President Trump had reportedly agreed to ethics language in the CLARITY Act, a move framed as a potential step toward a Senate vote. He was skeptical, though. The bill would need nine Democratic senators to cross the aisle, and while Republicans are broadly on board with the crypto market-structure framework, Democrats remain the central sticking point. Rietveld cautioned his audience against assuming that a vote, if it happens, would automatically send XRP to a new all-time high. That kind of expectation, he noted, has circulated repeatedly over the past year without materializing. There is also a hard deadline looming: if the bill does not advance before Congress heads into its August recess, its chances of passing could fade sharply heading into 2026.
Rietveld also widened the lens beyond Washington. He pointed to Russia reportedly legalizing crypto for foreign trade settlements, alongside active policy development in Hong Kong, South Korea, Japan, and mainland China. The subtext was clear: U.S. lawmakers are not operating in a vacuum, and falling behind other jurisdictions on digital-asset frameworks carries its own political cost. Whether that pressure translates into Senate votes before the summer break is another matter entirely.
The rate-hike angle is what gives the analysis its edge. If prediction markets are right and the Fed does move rates higher, risk assets across the board would face headwinds, and XRP, already sensitive to macro shifts, would be no exception. Rietveld's core point is simple: a bill that may or may not pass is getting more attention from XRP traders than a monetary-policy shift that is already being priced in at 62%.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Crypto markets carry significant risk; always do your own research before making investment decisions.
