Ondo Finance’s token surged over 6% in a single day, outpacing Bitcoin’s modest 1.9% gain, yet the rally is raising eyebrows due to lackluster trading activity. Despite the sharp price movement, data from CryptoQuant reveals that sellers still dominate the market, as the spot taker CVD metric remains bearish over a 90-day period. Adding to the concern, 8.1 million ONDO tokens, valued at around $1.66 million, were moved to Coinbase, a move often interpreted as potential selling pressure.

On the flip side, derivatives markets show heightened interest, with Open Interest climbing 16% in 24 hours according to Coinalyze. This suggests some traders are speculating on the token’s short-term momentum, but the underlying volume and buying strength tell a different story.

Weak Volume Clouds Bullish Breakout

Since May, Ondo Finance’s price formed a descending triangle pattern, which culminated in a bullish breakout earlier this month. The MACD indicator supports upward momentum, hovering above zero. Yet the On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator remains flat and has failed to surpass highs from late June, indicating that buying pressure lacks conviction. Trading volumes have also fallen short of the intensity seen in May, signaling caution.

The token’s price structure is still constrained by a bearish swing from $0.47 down to $0.20. Fibonacci retracement analysis places a key resistance at $0.413, and although the current price sits just above this level, previous breakout attempts have been rejected. This reinforces the idea that the $0.413 to $0.47 range is a battleground where sellers hold firm.

Ondo Finance’s strong points include defending a $0.31 support level in late June and repeated pushes towards the $0.47 supply zone, indicating buyer interest. The platform’s position as a leading real-world asset tokenization project and the launch of the Ondo Network add long-term appeal. Still, these positives haven’t translated into strong buying volume.

Until the token decisively breaks above $0.47 with sustained volume, traders may see current levels as a selling opportunity. Only a confirmed breakout and subsequent pullback could create a safer entry point for buyers.

This material is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.