Senate Majority Leader John Thune reversed his earlier stance and confirmed that the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act lacks sufficient support to pass before the Senate's August recess. This announcement on July 23 caught many off guard, especially since Thune had pledged just nine days prior to push for a vote before lawmakers left.
The Clarity Act, known as H.R. 3633, was designed to provide clear regulatory guidelines for cryptocurrencies by defining the roles of the SEC and CFTC in overseeing digital assets. The bill aims to distinguish digital commodities from investment contracts and regulate stablecoins accordingly. After successfully passing the House with bipartisan backing in July 2025, it moved through the Senate Banking Committee with amendments in June 2026.
However, the bill hit roadblocks when Senate Democrats objected to the GOP’s ethics provisions attached to it. also disagreements over stablecoin regulations stalled momentum and eroded the bipartisan support that the legislation initially enjoyed. Despite this, Thune expressed a desire to continue discussions on the bill.
Prediction markets quickly adjusted to this setback. On Polymarket, the chance of the Clarity Act passing this year plummeted to around 30-33%, a sharp fall from the higher odds seen when Thune was actively advocating for a vote. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent remains hopeful about eventual passage, but his optimism contrasts with the Senate leader’s recent admission.
This delay means the crypto industry remains in regulatory limbo. Exchanges, token issuers, and platforms still lack definitive clarity on which federal agency governs their activities, the classification of digital assets, and the future treatment of stablecoins under U.S. law. The next critical moment will be when the Senate reconvenes after recess, with Thune facing the challenge of bridging Democratic opposition on ethics provisions amid an increasingly tight timeline before midterm elections.
