Iran’s reported missile attack on a US military base in Jordan triggered an immediate surge in oil prices, wiping out a day’s worth of losses in just ten minutes. Brent crude, which had slipped to $83.75, and WTI, down to $78.55, both rebounded sharply as traders reacted to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Over the last three days, oil prices had fallen nearly 17%, but the strike changed market sentiment overnight.
The Azraq base, targeted by Iran according to initial reports, sits at the heart of regional strategic interests, raising fears of supply disruptions. Investors rushed to recalibrate risk, driving oil futures higher on worries that further conflict could choke off critical production or transit routes. Despite this jump, the chance of crude hitting fresh all-time highs by the end of September remains slim, with market odds at just 4.8%. However, the probability for a record peak by year-end has inched up slightly to 12.5%, reflecting increased uncertainty.
Market watchers will keep a close eye on developments from key players including OPEC and the International Energy Agency, whose statements could sway perceptions of supply stability. This incident shows how geopolitical flashpoints continue to shape oil prices amid a fragile global energy landscape.
Following the strike, Brent crude climbed back above $85 while WTI approached $80 again.
material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice
