SpaceX shares edged down 0.5% to $114.60 on Monday, despite the company’s impressive 13th Starship test flight on Friday. This movement bucks the broader market trend, with S&P 500 futures up 0.9% and Dow futures climbing 1.1% that morning.

The stock has now slumped about 38% over the last three weeks, falling below its $135 IPO price set in June and dropping more than 40% from its peak close of $201.80.

Friday's Starship mission met most objectives: deploying 20 Starlink V3 satellites, successfully relighting an engine in space, and completing a splashdown in the Indian Ocean. The booster, however, failed to do a soft splashdown. Despite this, KeyBanc analyst Michael Leshock described the flight as "near perfection" and a significant milestone.

Looking ahead, SpaceX plans Flight 14 in the coming weeks. CEO Elon Musk aims to try catching the upper stage using mechanical "chopsticks" on the launch tower, a maneuver previously only attempted with the booster.

On July 25, HSBC became the first major bank to initiate coverage of SpaceX under ticker SPCX, setting a Hold rating and a $115 price target a figure below the then $118.24 market price. HSBC’s valuation accounts separately for each SpaceX business segment and includes a 2x "innovation premium" based on Musk's track record, yet still remains conservative compared to current stock levels.

The bank forecasts SpaceX’s revenue will more than double to $38.2 billion by 2026, up from $18.7 billion in 2025. Despite this growth, HSBC expects GAAP losses to persist through 2027, with free cash flow remaining negative until roughly 2030. This path implies a staggering $106 billion cash burn before profitability is achieved.

A bullish scenario valued SpaceX shares at $293, contingent on Starship commercial success, accelerated Starlink user growth, and earlier-than-expected AI revenue generation.

SpaceX’s AI division weighed heavily on quarterly results, reporting $818 million in revenue but a $2.47 billion operating loss in Q1 2026, despite Starlink’s strong $3.26 billion revenue and $1.19 billion operating income. The AI segment’s hefty capital expenditure of $7.7 billion out of $10.1 billion total Q1 spend highlights the challenge, especially amid competition from Amazon, Microsoft, and Google.

Two major dates are on investors’ radar in August: the Q1 earnings report set for August 4 and a major lock-up expiration on August 6, which may more than double SpaceX's tradable shares.