Galaxy Research Lowers Odds of Clarity Act Passing in 2026 to 50% Amid Senate Scheduling Worries

Galaxy Research has revised its probability estimate for the passage of the Clarity Act in 2026, dropping it to 50% — a notable downgrade from projections made just weeks earlier. The firm's head of research, Alex Thorn, pointed to two primary factors driving this more cautious outlook: a congested Senate calendar and a noticeable stall in legislative negotiations.

According to Thorn, the Senate's packed schedule leaves little room for the Clarity Act to advance through the necessary procedural stages before the year is out. With multiple competing legislative priorities vying for floor time, the window for meaningful debate and a potential vote has narrowed considerably.

The lack of meaningful progress in bipartisan talks has further eroded confidence in the bill's near-term prospects. Thorn noted that negotiations that were once showing signs of momentum have since stalled, with key stakeholders failing to reach consensus on critical provisions within the legislation.

The Clarity Act, which is aimed at establishing a clearer regulatory framework for digital assets in the United States, has been closely watched by the crypto industry as a potentially landmark piece of legislation. Its passage would represent a significant step toward resolving longstanding ambiguities surrounding the classification and oversight of cryptocurrencies and blockchain-based assets.

However, the revised odds reflect the broader challenge of pushing through complex financial regulation in a politically divided environment. Even with industry support and vocal advocates in both chambers of Congress, translating that enthusiasm into legislative action remains an uphill battle.

Galaxy's updated assessment serves as a reminder that even high-profile crypto bills face substantial institutional hurdles. Market participants and industry observers will be watching closely to see whether negotiations regain momentum and whether Senate leadership can carve out the necessary time to bring the Clarity Act to a vote before the end of 2026.