Ethereum has been trading under pressure since February, staying below its overall cost basis of $2,300. Despite a recent bounce to $1,920 followed by a pullback, sellers continue to dominate the market, leaving many holders in the red.
As reported by AMBCrypto, the realized price bands suggest that if the bear market pattern from 2022 repeats, Ethereum's price could decline further to around $1,150. The spot ETF outflows of $70.7 million on July 24 ended a five-day streak of inflows, indicating that the rally may be losing steam and a bearish trend could persist.
On-chain Data Points to Potential Bottoming
Some on-chain indicators, however, hint at reduced downside risk. According to CryptoQuant data cited by XWIN Japan, exchange reserves have dropped from 5 million ETH in mid-2025 to 3.8 million recently, signaling accumulation by holders and easing selling pressure.
While the market price remains below the realized price, setting up attractive opportunities for long-term investors, XWIN Japan warns that falling exchange reserves alone do not confirm a market bottom.
Crypto analyst Crypto Onchain notes that Ethereum’s network activity has been subdued over the past quarter, with median transaction fees sitting 92% below the 90-day average. Yet, last week saw a 16% rise in fees and a 190% surge in new smart contract deployments compared to the quarterly baseline, alongside an 86% increase in median tip fees. These shifts suggest growing organic demand on the network.
use appears controlled, with Binance funding rates cooling and open interest dropping from $15.06 billion at the start of June to $11.85 billion now. Sustained increases in activity combined with low use could support a price rebound fueled by genuine demand.
Ethereum remains undervalued relative to its realized price, and steady accumulation along with rising on-chain usage offers cautious optimism. Investors may want to watch these metrics closely for signs of a durable recovery.
This article is for informational purposes and does not constitute financial advice.
