On July 25, Ethereum hovered near $1,860, down from a recent peak above $1,950 earlier in the week. After rallying from lows around $1,510 at the end of June, the market is now divided on where ETH’s price will land by the end of 2026.
Market Split on Ethereum’s Price Milestones
Polymarket bettors have wagered over $95,000 on a contract asking whether Ethereum will hit $1,000 or $3,000 first before December 31, 2026. The odds are nearly even, with the $1,000 outcome priced at 54 cents and the $3,000 at 50 cents, signaling skepticism about a major rally.
A broader Polymarket market on Ethereum’s 2026 price has attracted close to $9 million in volume. Here, traders assign an 83% chance that ETH hits $2,000 and a 56% chance it reaches $2,500, while odds drop sharply beyond these levels: only 12% for $3,500 and under 4% for $5,000.
Interestingly, a contract anticipating Ethereum dropping to $1,500 holds $1.86 million, the highest volume in this event, with traders placing nearly a 50% probability on that scenario.
Another market on Polymarket tracks whether ETH will set a new all-time high by the end of 2026. Traders give this a 6% chance, with just 1% odds of achieving a new peak by September 30. The current all-time high stands close to $4,946 from August 2025, nearly 62% above the current price, highlighting the bearish sentiment for a quick breakout.
Kalshi’s comparable market, “How high will ethereum get this year?,” prices the probability of ETH exceeding $3,500 at 15%, above $3,750 at 12%, and over $4,000 at just 10%. This market settles on January 1, 2027, using the CF Ethereum Real Time Index.
The betting trends coincide with signs of renewed institutional interest. BlackRock and Fidelity ETFs drew $73 million in daily inflows as Ethereum steadied near current levels. Meanwhile, Bitmine has increased its holdings to 5.78 million ETH, and Glamsterdam’s mainnet launch is anticipated in September or October.
