Billy Markus, the co-founder of Dogecoin who posts on X as Shibetoshi Nakamoto, put a rough timeline on the current crypto slump: three to four years, historically speaking. He said so on July 22 after a community member asked how long this flat, uneventful stretch tends to drag on.
His initial post was blunt. "This is what the crypto bear market always looks like. It's not panic-inducing. It's just so boring." When someone pressed him on duration, he replied "3 4 years historically but who knows," leaving room for the market to surprise him either way.
The timing of his comments fits the data. CryptoQuant flagged in early July that 40% of altcoins are trading near all-time lows, a level of underperformance that analysts described as extreme. Dogecoin itself touched $0.0693 at the start of the month, its lowest price since November 2023. At the time of writing it was sitting at $0.0723, down roughly 29% over the course of July alone.
What Markus is describing has a name in market analysis: the consolidation phase. It typically follows a sharp move in either direction and is marked by prices chopping sideways, rallies getting sold into quickly, and trading volumes staying thin. Most altcoins underperform during this stretch, and the broader market generates little excitement. For traders used to volatile swings, the silence is often harder to sit with than a proper crash.
If the three-to-four-year estimate holds, and Markus himself acknowledged it might not, the market could remain in this low-energy state well into the late 2020s. Previous cycles offer some precedent: the bear market that followed the 2017 peak lasted roughly two to three years before Bitcoin found a sustained floor. The 2022 collapse stretched similarly. Neither comparison is a guarantee, but the pattern Markus is nodding to is real enough to take seriously.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.
