Cleveland-Cliffs posted a Q2 adjusted loss of $0.20 per share, missing the consensus estimate by exactly one cent. Revenue landed at $5.2 billion, up 9% from $4.8 billion a year earlier and right in line with what analysts had penciled in. The headline miss barely registered. What the market fixated on was everything else in the report.

Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter hit $286 million, three times the $95 million recorded in Q1. That improvement came despite extended maintenance outages in April and May that dragged on output. CEO Lourenco Goncalves framed it plainly: "The second quarter marked another step in returning to the earnings power this company is capable of." Operating cash flow reached $230 million. Steel product sales totaled 4.0 million net tons, with the automotive segment accounting for 29% of direct sales. The average net selling price per ton climbed to $1,124, up from $1,048 in Q1.

Q3 Guidance Did the Heavy Lifting

The pre-market rally had little to do with Q2 numbers. Cleveland-Cliffs guided for approximately $575 million in Q3 adjusted EBITDA, more than double what the company just delivered and well above analyst forecasts. Goncalves pointed to improving domestic demand, subdued import volumes, and lengthening lead times as the drivers behind that confidence.

Full-year steel shipment guidance stayed unchanged at 16.5 to 17.0 million net tons. Liquidity stood at $3.1 billion as of June 30, 2026, and management expects to bring use below the 2.5x debt-to-EBITDA threshold within the next twelve months.

It is worth noting the setup heading into earnings: in the 90 days before the report, Cleveland-Cliffs collected zero positive EPS revisions and five negative ones. The stock had already slipped 13.38% over the prior year and closed at $9.45 the session before results dropped.

By pre-market, shares were trading at $10.26, up $0.81 or roughly 8.6%, with investors betting heavily on Q3 rather than dwelling on the Q2 shortfall.

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