Polymarket traders now assign only a 25% probability that the CLARITY Act will become law in 2026, reflecting growing uncertainty as the White House evaluates a bipartisan ethics proposal influencing the legislation’s Senate schedule before August recess.
Ethics Proposal Could Determine CLARITY Act’s Fate
Negotiators led by Senators Thom Tillis (R) and Ruben Gallego (D) crafted a compromise ethics provision aimed at resolving previous disputes halting progress on crypto market structure reform. This latest proposal assigns state attorneys general a role in overseeing restrictions on federal officials’ involvement with digital assets, a significant change from earlier drafts that granted enforcement solely to federal prosecutors. Specific details on the scope of state powers remain undisclosed, fueling speculation around how those mechanisms would operate in practice.
Trump’s Approval Seen as key
Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital, expressed confidence that President Trump will endorse the revised ethics language, potentially clearing the path for the CLARITY Act’s Senate consideration. Scaramucci suggested that if Trump signs off, opposition rooted in partisan politics or banking lobby interests would face political risks ahead of upcoming elections. While neither the White House nor Trump have officially confirmed acceptance, reports indicate the counterproposal was sent to the administration on Thursday, signaling progress at the highest political level. Scaramucci also claimed though later deleted that Trump’s children back the compromise, a detail yet to be independently validated.
The ethics provision seeks to prevent the president, vice president, and other federal officials from issuing or sponsoring digital assets during their tenure, addressing concerns that had stymied Congressional consensus. Senate Democrats initially opposed a Republican-backed ethics measure for limiting enforcement authority, illustrating the delicate balance the new proposal aims to strike. The final resolution of this disagreement will likely dictate whether the CLARITY Act advances or stalls in the Senate calendar before the August recess.
This article provides a perspective on evolving crypto legislation and does not constitute financial advice.
