Bitcoin’s profitability improved notably from late June to late July, climbing from 46.2% to 58%, marking the lowest point seen this year. During that period, over 10% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply realized profits as prices bounced from the mid-$50,000s to above $60,000. However, this optimism cooled slightly with profitability retreating to 55.2% at the time of writing.
Profitability Trends and Whale Activity
Historically, bear market recoveries saw Bitcoin’s profitable supply surpass 64%, with previous cycle peaks hitting between 64% and 83%. Currently, long-term holders continue accumulating, while short-term holders are selling near break-even levels, indicated by a short-term holder SOPR of 1.0. This suggests selling pressure is easing but Bitcoin still needs to exceed 60-65% profitable supply to align with stronger past recoveries.
Whale investors holding 100 to 1,000 BTC have moved back into unrealized profit, a sign of growing confidence beneath the surface. These whales have maintained relatively stable profitability throughout the downturn, avoiding large-scale coin sales. Such behavior parallels patterns from March and April when similar whale profitability rebounds preceded short-term price gains. Yet, sustained accumulation rather than mere profit recovery is key to a genuine rally.
The price action has shown resilience, consolidating near $64,000 after a rally close to $66,700. Momentum indicators like RSI and MACD signal cooling momentum, not increased selling. Losing support at $64,000 could trigger deeper profit-taking before buyers test the highs again.
