As July wraps up, Bitcoin’s options market shows a clear change in mood. The $60,000 put option, which protects against price drops, has surged to the top on Deribit, the largest crypto options platform, with open interest hitting $1.17 billion. This marks a bearish tilt as traders brace for potential declines in August.
Just days ago, call options betting on Bitcoin reaching $70,000 and $72,000 dominated, each boasting open interest exceeding $2.5 billion. These bullish bets were fueled by expectations around the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, which many hoped would push prices higher. That rally never materialized, and with the $10 billion options expiry on Friday morning UTC, those call positions were pared back significantly. Now, the $70,000 and $72,000 calls stand at $943 million and $888 million respectively well below the $60,000 put’s popularity.
Seasonal Patterns Hint at a Tough August
Historical data shows July tends to be positive for Bitcoin, with a median gain of 8.61%. This July has followed that trend, rising 8.9%. However, the seasonality flips in August, which has produced a median loss of 7.51% since 2013. The median offers a clearer picture here, filtering out the extreme swings that can distort averages in crypto markets.
Such numbers suggest traders are preparing for a rougher ride next month. As the market digests these shifts, volatility and caution could dominate. Bitcoin’s price, currently hovering above $63,000, may face headwinds if bearish sentiment grows stronger.
This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
