This week, Bitcoin pushed past $66,800 briefly, marking its highest point in over a month before retreating slightly. The upswing came as Bitcoin ETFs recorded seven consecutive days of inflows, pulling nearly $1 billion back into the market since mid-July after a tough stretch of outflows in May and June.
These inflows hint at renewed investor interest, yet experts remain divided: is this the market bottom, or just another short-lived bear-market rally? The last time ETF inflows sustained a similar streak, Bitcoin headed into a rally in October 2025, but history offers no guarantees.
ETF Flows Clash With Professional Caution
Behind the scenes, a split emerges. Spot Bitcoin ETFs are soaking up supply once more, yet professional traders show clear hesitance. Coinbase’s Premium Index stayed negative for over 900 hours straight, the longest period in two years. A negative premium indicates weaker demand or heightened selling pressure on Coinbase compared to Binance, signaling persistent caution from institutional players.
Analyst Darkfrost links this wariness to stubborn inflation rates, climbing oil prices, and uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s new leadership. These factors, he explains, continue to drive institutional selling pressure despite ETF inflows providing some price support.
As a result, ETF-driven price gains lack confirmation from broader spot market demand, leaving Bitcoin’s recovery fragile should ETF inflows slow down. This dynamic raises questions about Bitcoin’s current behavior: is it governed by its historical four-year halving cycle, or has it transformed into a macro asset influenced more by broader economic trends?
Grayscale’s recent research points to these two perspectives. Traditional cycle followers predict a possible bottom in September or October tied to halving events. In contrast, Grayscale’s Head of Research Zach Pandl argues that Bitcoin now responds primarily to macroeconomic forces like Fed policy shifts and rising real interest rates, meaning the market could stabilize only when these factors reverse.
Meanwhile, the analytics firm Glassnode remains cautious, labeling the current movement a bear-market rally until solid proof suggests otherwise.
This material is for informational purposes and not financial advice.
