Bitcoin’s price action remains sluggish, struggling to find direction amid cooling futures market activity and weak spot demand. Recent data from Bitfinex reveals that a once-popular carry trade strategy involving Bitcoin has lost appeal in 2026. The gap between spot prices and CME futures, known as the basis, has stayed under 5.5% this year, dropping below 2% last month marking significantly reduced incentives for traders relying on this approach.
Open interest on CME Bitcoin futures has also plummeted to its lowest point since the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024. This decline means fewer traders are initiating new contracts, further dampening market momentum. While funding rates for these futures contracts have started to edge higher, the basis remains too narrow to make the carry trade attractive once again, leaving many traders hesitant to jump back in.
Demand Weakness Extends to Both Spot and Futures Markets
Market analyst Darkfrost points out that Bitcoin has faced persistently weak demand across both spot and futures segments since the start of the year. Sometimes, spot and futures demand fall in tandem, other times futures trading flares briefly while spot demand stays soft. These patterns echo dynamics seen in previous bear markets, where rallies only gain traction with concurrent buying pressure from both sides.
As of July 26, 2026, combined spot and futures demand stands at a deficit of 127,000 BTC a level Darkfrost says is insufficient to spark an upward breakout. The market remains in limbo, lacking the synchronized buying needed to push prices higher.
This extended lull contrasts with scenarios like those explored in recent Bitcoin options strategy shifts, hinting at complexity and caution dominating trader behavior. Without stronger participation in both futures and spot markets, the outlook for a clear breakout remains uncertain.
