Bitcoin has made a notable recovery in the last three weeks, with a growing portion of its supply now in profit. As of July 22, 57.5% of Bitcoin coins were worth more than their purchase price, up from 46.2% at the end of June. This shift reflects roughly one in ten Bitcoins moving from loss to gain as prices climbed about 7% to hover near $65,100.

Bitcoin Profit Levels and Market Metrics

Data from CryptoQuant expert thechessONCHAIN highlights that while the recovery is encouraging, Bitcoin hasn’t yet met the benchmarks that have historically marked the end of bear markets. The 30-day average Long-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), a key metric indicating profit-taking behavior, remains at 0.86, below the 1.0 level signaling a regime change.

Looking back at previous bear market recoveries:

  • April 2012 saw 69% of supply in profit before market turnarounds.
  • November 2015 recovery required 64% supply in profit.
  • May 2019 showed 83% supply profitability at bottom reversal.
  • April 2023 recovery featured 77% supply in profit.

Currently, Bitcoin's supply in profit sits well below these historical thresholds, suggesting the rally might still have room to grow before a confirmed bear market exit.

Shift in Selling Dynamics Among Bitcoin Holders

Examining who is selling reveals a change in market behavior. Early July saw long-term holders, defined as owning Bitcoin for over six months, contributing 12% to 16% of coins moving back to exchanges amid the price rebound. That figure has since dropped to under 1%, implying older investors are stepping back from selling.

Instead, the selling pressure now appears to originate primarily from newer owners who bought Bitcoin between one month and two years ago. These investors likely acquired their coins at average prices ranging from $72,000 up to $101,000, positioning them at a loss or break-even point at current price levels.

This emerging trend highlights the complexity of Bitcoin's market cycles, where fresh holders face different profit and loss dynamics compared to seasoned investors. The recent price behavior and holder activity continue to draw attention as market participants watch for clearer signs of a sustained recovery.