Bitcoin’s short-term holders are now facing losses of around 4%, a sharp improvement from the 20.48% deficit recorded in early June. This shift reflects a significant change in market dynamics, with the asset recovering from a July low of $57,800 to $65,777 in just over three weeks.
The current price of approximately $66,000 approaches the average cost basis of short-term holders, who have owned their coins for less than 155 days. Since they need to hold their positions longer to break even, this could lead to less selling pressure and more accumulation in the near term.
Historically, Bitcoin returning to profitability among this group has preceded major rally phases. For example, when short-term holders moved above break-even in April 2025, Bitcoin surged from $92,000 to its all-time high near $126,000 by October that year.
Supporting signs of bullish momentum include the accumulation/distribution indicator, which measures buying versus selling volume. It has climbed to 4.69 million Bitcoin, reaching levels last seen before a strong upward move in June. also a golden cross formed recently, with the 20-day moving average crossing above the 50-day average, a pattern often associated with sustained rallies.
Bitcoin’s current trading price sits in what analysts have identified as an undervalued zone relative to realized on-chain values. However, for momentum to fully materialize, net inflows in spot markets need to turn positive, showing that buyers are gaining control over sellers.
