Bitcoin's recent rollercoaster hasn't triggered a full sell-off among holders. Data from CryptoQuant’s research head Julio Moreno shows that the market hasn't entered capitulation the point where desperation selling dominates. So far, investors aren’t rushing to exit, which tells a different story than many expect.
Moreno points out that only around 136,000 Bitcoins have been sold at a loss over the past year. Looking back, during previous cycles, losses spiked much higher anywhere between 1.3 million and 3.7 million BTC. This cycle’s realized losses could become the mildest on record, but that doesn’t mean the pain is over. There’s a real chance these numbers climb as the sell pressure continues.
Two paths lie ahead: either this market cycle marks the lowest level of loss-taking Bitcoin has ever seen, or the bottom is still ahead and further decline looms. The key takeaway is that the signature wave of capitulation, which often defines a true market bottom, hasn’t arrived yet. Investors watching the charts should stay cautious and not assume that current prices represent the final low.
This analysis provides fresh perspective amid mixed signals from price movements. While BTC has corrected somewhat, the lack of massive surrender selling suggests the market is still digesting its next move. For those tracking market cycles, this means the calm before a storm might be in place, not the all-clear.
This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
