Bitcoin is up 11.5% in July, marking its third consecutive green July, a streak no other month has managed in recent years. Yet, August carries the heaviest loss historically, with a median return of -7.87%, making the coming month a challenging test for BTC.
After trading quietly around $65,300 in a tight range, Bitcoin’s momentum seems to hinge on three factors: diminishing fund inflows, contrasting moves between whales and long-term holders, and bearish technical signals.
Institutional demand is cooling sharply. Weekly Bitcoin ETF inflows, which hit a high of $197.4 million in early July, dropped to just $33.79 million by the week ending July 24, a steep 83% decline from their peak. Though institutions are not unloading their holdings, interest in spot Bitcoin ETFs is clearly tapering as August approaches.
Meanwhile, whales buck this cautious trend. Since July 23, the number of wallets holding at least 1,000 BTC rose slightly from 1,263 to 1,267. This buying behavior echoes late June, when whales accumulated and Bitcoin gained nearly 4%, hinting at a possible short-term bounce.
Long-term holders paint a more cautious picture. Their net position change peaked in late May at over 42,000 BTC but has since dropped by about half, falling to roughly 15,700 BTC by late July. This slowdown in accumulation suggests these holders might be bracing for a price correction.
This divergence between active whales and hesitant long-term holders, alongside weakening ETF inflows, highlights the uncertainty as Bitcoin heads into its traditionally weakest month. The market waits to see if historical patterns hold or if Bitcoin can defy seasonality once again.
This content is for informational purposes and does not constitute financial advice.
