Bitcoin has shed more than 25% since January 1 and sits 48% below its all-time high of $126,198, set in October 2025. At press time it trades at $66,230, with a market cap of $2.26 trillion, up 1.03% in 24 hours and 4.89% over the past week. The last time BTC held above $70,000 was June 2, and even that lasted barely a day before sellers took over.
What the charts say
Crypto ratings platform Weiss Crypto flagged August as the most likely window for a relief rally. In a July 19 post on X, the firm said it expects Bitcoin to climb back to the $70,000 level "between now and early August." That target is essentially a retracement to where the coin was six weeks ago, not a breakout into new territory.
The optimism has limits baked right in. Weiss Crypto was explicit: "The relief will not take us into a new bull run." The firm pointed to JPM2 and bond market data both showing a peak in early August, with a correction likely extending into September. So the window, if it opens, is narrow.
What on-chain data is signaling
CryptoQuant's latest report complicates the picture. Spot demand for Bitcoin has been declining, and that matters because derivatives momentum alone cannot hold a price rally together. According to the report, if spot buyers stay on the sidelines, any derivative-driven bounce could trigger a "significant long liquidation event," turning what looks like a recovery into a cascade of forced selling.
The structure is fragile. Derivatives traders may push the price up short-term, but without real spot buying behind it, $70,000 could quickly become a liquidation magnet rather than a base for further gains.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Crypto markets are volatile; always do your own research before making investment decisions.
