Jiang Zhuoer, who runs China's BTC.top mining pool, just made a bold prediction. Bitcoin might crash to $44,016 before the month ends, he argues, based on how the crypto has behaved in past cycles. Right now BTC is hovering above $65,000, so that's a 33% drop from here.
The pattern he's looking at is Bitcoin's four-year boom-bust rhythm. In the last three major bear markets, the declines topped out at 86.9%, 84.1%, and 77.6%. This time around, Zhuoer thinks we'll get off easier with a 65.1% pullback. Still brutal, but less severe than the previous bloodbaths.
His case rests on timing and depth. The current correction hasn't matched the length or the punch of earlier bear markets yet, Zhuoer says. Look at the historical record and the pattern repeats almost perfectly. Duration, price action, the whole arc. If that pattern holds, October becomes the likely moment when things finally bottom out.
The mining operator isn't alone in watching these cycles. Big players tracking on-chain movements and historical precedent constantly revisit whether we're truly in capitulation or just a temporary pullback. The difference between these scenarios determines everything for hodlers and traders alike.
This material is informational only and does not constitute financial advice.
